Probabilities Luck and Laplace’s Demon

Probabilities Luck and Laplace’s Demon

Do you really think there is such a thing as luck?

So if you can accurately predict the future, will the luck factor disappear?

Now I will give you an example that will surprise you.

Statistician Calculating His Own Death Date

“Nothing is uncertain; everything is a result of the cause before it, whether we know this cause or not…”

Adopting his theory, statistician Abraham de Moivre noticed that in the last days of his life, he slept 15 minutes more each night. According to this data, he will die the day he sleeps for 24 hours. He calculates this day as 27 November 1754 and he really dies that day. It is not known whether it is accidental, but his work on probability, “The Doctrines of Chance”, also attracted Laplace’s attention.

So who is this Laplace and his famous Devil?

First of all, don’t be afraid! This is not a metaphysical and terrifying demon as we know it.

According to this theory of thought, Laplace’s Devil is a virtual being who is supposed to know all the forces in nature at any moment, together with the positions of the objects that make up the universe, and thus can know the future.

It is not known whether he has a connection with Nostradamus in terms of predicting the future, but according to him, there is no such thing as luck. It is predetermined that events that we define as luck with our limited knowledge will occur.

You ask why?

Because all events occur as a result of some situations. The situations mentioned here are connected to various physics and natural laws.

Is Nothing Actually Uncertain?

If we really knew all the laws of the natural sciences, like the Laplace Devil, could we still talk about luck?

For example, in this case, when we toss a coin in the air, it would not depend on a fifty percent chance to get heads or tails. It would be possible to find the result if parameters such as the angle at which we hold the coin, the environment we throw it, the temperature, the material from which the coin is made, the diameter of the coin, the center of gravity, the speed of the wind, and the force we apply are known. However, the human brain does not yet have the functionality to do this.

By the way, this system of thought, which argues that nothing can be uncertain, is called determinism.

According to the aforementioned view, there is no such thing as luck in our life.

It’s not luck that changes the course of our lives, it’s the small changes we make.

This thought reminds us that ‘the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Africa may trigger a chain of events and cause a hurricane in America.’ It leads to the butterfly effect theory, which is also explained by the word.

Can a tiny butterfly really have that much of an impact on us?

Even the smallest action taken or the smallest decision taken has the ability to affect the course of our lives. Perhaps the most important of these factors is the concept of time.

For example, even while you are reading this article, did you not make a good or bad choice?

Haven’t you made a small or big change in your life without realizing it by spending three or five minutes of your time reading my article?

Or the two minutes you spent staring at the shop window while walking on the road, didn’t it help you get rid of a vehicle that went out of control on the road at full speed, with an inch difference? And those two minutes were actually a gain for you, not a loss. For example, I narrowly avoided the city bus hitting me during my university years.

But what if you didn’t look at that not-so-chic outfit in the store?

We call it more luck, but is it all that simple?

Who Makes the Elections?

The possibilities in our lives, which bifurcate in different directions like the branches of a tree, are so great that a person cannot even imagine the sum of all these possibilities in his mind.

Just think! Would you still be in danger of falling if it wasn’t for the cute cat that caught your eye the other day before you tripped on the pavement and was preventing you from looking ahead?

Wouldn’t you miss the bus at the stop if you hadn’t realized it was raining another day and had to go back home to get your umbrella?

Didn’t it even affect the choice of a spouse to be placed in a sub-preference instead of the department you wanted in the university exam?

What would your life look like if you married someone else or had two children instead of one?

There is no end to these possibilities…

And our life is shaped like a chain as a result of these possibilities. Unfortunately, a person can only see good or bad possibilities by analyzing the events that happened to him after making his choice, and many times he is not even aware that he has made a choice.

We Are In A Permanent Butterfly Effect

Of course, by the way, our collective life does not consist only of our own actions. Namely, if the employee before you had not been more qualified and had not been hired for you before your job interview, there would have been very different possibilities in front of you and maybe you would have been in a very different position now.

If we combine all the titles, everything is the product of cause and effect relationship. So a supercomputer, a supercomputer with all the information about you today, can know the probabilities of where and what you will be doing ten years from now by algorithmic calculations.

The bottom line is that you can be known and your life isn’t all that surprising to you.

Well, would you like to be able to know your future?

Which one wins the profit and loss account?

Personally, I like surprises and would not want such a demon in my life.

Aren’t things a little complicated?

Maybe you should read the article with thought once more.

But do not forget! The time you spend re-reading can change the course of your life.

The decision is yours.

Come on, take it easy.

Source:Burçak Yüce

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